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Many plant species in historically fire-dependent ecosystems exhibit fire-stimulated flowering. While greater reproductive effort after fire is expected to result in increased reproductive outcomes, seed production often depends on pollination, the spatial distribution of prospective mates, and the timing of their reproductive activity. Fire-stimulated flowering may thus have limited fitness benefits in small, isolated populations where mating opportunities are restricted and pollination rates are low. We conducted a 6-y study of 6,357 Echinacea angustifolia (Asteraceae) individuals across 35 remnant prairies in Minnesota (USA) to experimentally evaluate how fire effects on multiple components of reproduction vary with population size in a common species. Fire increased annual reproductive effort across populations, doubling the proportion of plants in flower and increasing the number of flower heads 65% per plant. In contrast, fire’s influence on reproductive outcomes differed between large and small populations, reflecting the density-dependent effects of fire on spatiotemporal mating potential and pollination. In populations with fewer than 20 individuals, fire did not consistently increase pollination or annual seed production. Above this threshold, fire increased mating potential, leading to a 24% increase in seed set and a 71% increase in annual seed production. Our findings suggest that density-dependent effects of fire on pollination largely determine plant reproductive outcomes and could influence population dynamics across fire-dependent systems. Failure to account for the density-dependent effects of fire on seed production may lead us to overestimate the beneficial effects of fire on plant demography and the capacity of fire to maintain plant diversity, especially in fragmented habitats. 

Data and code for: Beck, Waananen, and Wagenius. 2023. Habitat fragmentation decouples fire-stimulated flowering from plant reproductive fitness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Contains metadata, data, and R code necessary to replicate figures and analyses presented in the manuscript. 

Abstract Juvenile survival is critical to population persistence and evolutionary change. However, the survival of juvenile plants from emergence to reproductive maturity is rarely quantified. This is especially true for long‐lived perennials with extended pre‐reproductive periods. Furthermore, studies rarely have the replication necessary to account for variation among populations and cohorts. We estimated juvenile survival and its relationship to population size, density of conspecifics, distance to the maternal plant, age, year, and cohort forEchinacea angustifolia, a long‐lived herbaceous perennial. In 14 remnant prairie populations over seven sampling years, 2007–2013, we identified 886 seedlings. We then monitored these individuals annually until 2021 (8–15 years). Overall, juvenile mortality was very high; for almost all cohorts fewer than 10% of seedlings survived to age 8 or to year 2021. Only two of the seedlings reached reproductive maturity within the study period. Juvenile survival increased with distance from the maternal plant and varied more among the study years than it did by age or cohort. Juvenile survival did not vary with population size or local density of conspecific neighbors. Our results suggest that low juvenile survival could contribute to projected population declines.